ABSTRACT
Following the USA, India ranks the second position globally for COVID-19 cases in the pandemic year 2020. The study intends to explore the epidemiological stage of COVID-19 disease by estimating the most warranted features peak and size of COVID-19 cases in India. Data for this study was retrieved from a publicly available COVID19-India application programming interface (API). Exponential model was applied to estimate the growth rates of daily COVID-19 cases. Seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed for the growth rates to predict daily COVID-19 cases. The exponential model unravels a shift and a modest decline in the growth of daily COVID-19 cases. The study shows that the SARIMA model is suitable for projecting daily COVID-19 cases. The forecasted peak value of daily COVID-19 cases was approximately 104,000 COVID-19 cases on 19 September 2020, whereas the real-time peak value was 97,861 COVID-19 cases conspicuous on 16 September 2020. The projected size of COVID-19 disease was 105 lakhs versus 103 lakhs at the end of December 2020. The forecasts and projections is adjoining to the real-time peak value of daily COVID-19 cases in India and successfully explores the epidemiological stage of COVID-19 disease in India.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Quantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth (e0) provide a more comprehensive understanding of the burden of coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) on mortality. The study aims to comprehend the repercussions of the burden of COVID-19 disease on the life expectancy at birth and inequality in age at death in India. METHODS: The mortality schedule of COVID-19 disease in the pandemic year 2020 was considered one of the causes of death in the category of other infectious diseases in addition to other 21 causes of death in the non-pandemic year 2019 in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. The measures e0 and Gini coefficient at age zero (G0) and then sex differences in e0 and G0 over time were analysed by assessing the age-specific contributions based on the application of decomposition analyses in the entire period of 2010-2020. RESULTS: The e0 for men and women decline from 69.5 and 72.0 years in 2019 to 67.5 and 69.8 years, respectively, in 2020. The e0 shows a drop of approximately 2.0 years in 2020 when compared to 2019. The sex differences in e0 and G0 are negatively skewed towards men. The trends in e0 and G0 value reveal that its value in 2020 is comparable to that in the early 2010s. The age group of 35-79 years showed a remarkable negative contribution to Δe0 and ΔG0. By causes of death, the COVID-19 disease has contributed - 1.5 and - 9.5%, respectively, whereas cardiovascular diseases contributed the largest value of was 44.6 and 45.9%, respectively, to sex differences in e0 and G0 in 2020. The outcomes reveal a significant impact of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 disease on mortality patterns. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has negative repercussions on e0 and G0 in the pandemic year 2020. It has severely affected the distribution of age at death in India, resulting in widening the sex differences in e0 and G0. The COVID-19 disease demonstrates its potential to cancel the gains of six to eight years in e0 and five years in G0 and has slowed the mortality transition in India.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Life Expectancy , Adult , Aged , Cause of Death , Female , Humans , India/epidemiology , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Mortality , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
Since the beginning of the year, the deadly coronavirus pandemic, better known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), brought the entire world to an unprecedented halt. In tandem with the global scenario, researchers in India are actively engaged in the conduct of clinical research to counter the pandemic. This review attempts to provide a comprehensive overview of the COVID-19 research in India including design aspects, through the clinical trials registered in the Clinical Trials Registry - India (CTRI) till June 5, 2020. One hundred and twenty two registered trials on COVID-19 were extracted from the CTRI database. These trials were categorized into modern medicine (n=42), traditional medicine (n=67) and miscellaneous (n=13). Of the 42 modern medicine trials, 28 were on repurposed drugs, used singly (n=24) or in combination (n=4). Of these 28 trials, 23 were to evaluate their therapeutic efficacy in different severities of the disease. There were nine registered trials on cell- and plasma-based therapies, two phytopharmaceutical trials and three vaccine trials. The traditional medicine trials category majorly comprised Ayurveda (n=45), followed by homeopathy (n=14) and others (n=8) from Yoga, Siddha and Unani. Among the traditional medicine category, 31 trials were prophylactic and 36 were therapeutic, mostly conducted on asymptomatic or mild-to-moderate COVID-19 patients. This review would showcase the research being conducted on COVID-19 in the country and highlight the research gaps to steer further studies.